17 January 2011

Latest, latest Holyrood poll...

Very briefly, I thought it might be helpful to array some of today's TNS-BMRB Scottish polling data for your perusal and examination. The whole tranche of figures can be read here. The research involved pollsters invading the domestic tranquillity of their informers, posing face-to-face inquisitions on their voting intentions in the impending Holyrood election. The hounds of opinion cornered some 1,020 respondents between the 4th and 10th of January.

First, your first votes, in the constituency ballot (totals)...
  1. Labour 31%
  2. SNP 21%
  3. Conservative 6%
  4. Liberal Democrat 4%
  5. Other candidate or party 2%
  6. Undecided 19%
  7. Would not vote 14%

First constituency ballots (women)...
  1. Labour 34%
  2. SNP 16%
  3. Conservative 6%
  4. Liberal Democrat 4%
  5. Other candidate or party 1%
  6. Undecided 22%
  7. Would not vote 13%

First constituency ballots (men)...
  1. Labour 28%
  2. SNP 27%
  3. Conservative 6%
  4. Liberal Democrat 4%
  5. Other candidate or party 2%
  6. Undecided 16%
  7. Would not vote 14%

First votes in the constituency ballot amongst "committed voters" 
(totals, of 650/1020 identified as "committed")...
  1. Labour 49%
  2. SNP 33%
  3. Conservative 9%
  4. Liberal Democrat 7%
  5. Other candidate or party 2%

First votes in the constituency ballot amongst "committed voters" (men)...
  1. Labour 42%
  2. SNP 40%
  3. Conservative 8%
  4. Liberal Democrat 6%
  5. Other candidate or party 3%

First votes in the constituency ballot amongst "committed voters" (women)...
  1. Labour 55%
  2. SNP 26%
  3. Conservative 10%
  4. Liberal Democrat 7%
  5. Other candidate or party 1%

Secondly, your second votes, on the regional list (totals)...
  1. Labour 29%
  2. SNP 20%
  3. Conservative 5%
  4. Liberal Democrat 4%
  5. Scottish Greens 2%
  6. SSP 1%
  7. Undecided 21%
  8. Would not vote 15%

Your second votes, on the regional list (women)...
  1. Labour 31%
  2. SNP 16%
  3. Conservative 5%
  4. Liberal Democrat 5%
  5. Scottish Green 2%
  6. SSP 1%
  7. Undecided 24%
  8. Would not vote 14%

Second votes, on the regional list (men)...
  1. Labour 28%
  2. SNP 24%
  3. Conservative 6%
  4. Liberal Democrat 4%
  5. Scottish Green 1%
  6. SSP 1%
  7. Undecided 17%
  8. Would not vote 15%

List votes, amongst "committed voters" (totals)...
  1. Labour 47%
  2. SNP 33%
  3. Conservative 9%
  4. Liberal Democrat 7%
  5. Scottish Green 3%
  6. SSP 1%
  7. Others 1%

List votes, amongst "committed voters" (women)...
  1. Labour 51%
  2. SNP 27%
  3. Conservative 9%
  4. Liberal Democrat 8%
  5. Scottish Green 4%
  6. SSP 1%
  7. Others 1%

List votes, amongst "committed voters" (men)...
  1. Labour 43%
  2. SNP 38%
  3. Conservative 9%
  4. Liberal Democrat 6%
  5. Scottish Green 2%
  6. SSP 1%
  7. Others 4%

The poll contains a good deal of other information, breaking down avowed voting intentions by age, "class", correlations between constituency and regional preferences, and specific treatments of the polling data culled from different electoral regions. Plenty for the local activist to obsess over, whatever their political hue. Read and rummage through the whole thing here.

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